Betting Event of The Year: Highlights of The US Elections Impact On The Betting Market


So you thought the IPL or the Premier League was the biggest betting event of the year? Turns out you’re wrong! The contested U.S. Presidential election didn’t just achieve the highest ever voter turnout – it also garnered the biggest volume of bets placed on any betting event this year.

Since the 30th of October, the world held its breath as the US presidential elections 2020 for the term 2021-2024 were held with campaigns by both the Democrats and Republican parties standing neck to neck in the competition after Bernie Sanders dropped out of the race. 

The race to the oval office was one to be written down in history, as the Democrat party had the first female candidate for Vice-Presidency with an African-American and South-Asian heritage, making a powerful team in the Biden-Harris campaign.

While tensions in the United States ran high between the supporters of blue vs red, the world was watching and waiting for the outcome. A record breaking electoral turnout was first to make headlines where nearly 160 million people turned up to exercise their right to vote, making this the most influential moments for the common people in 120 years in the country.

On November 7th, it was announced that the Biden-Harris campaign had won by a small margin, putting an end to the reign of the 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump and his Vice-President Mike Pence. This moment also made history by bringing the country it’s first female Vice-President Elect, Kamala Harris, which shattered several ceilings at the same time.

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What was interesting throughout the entire duration of the election is how the many online betting sites shifted their odds time and time again due to the nerve-wracking ups and downs, including the two candidates addresses to the public simultaneously claiming victory. 

To bring you up to speed with all that the global betting franchise went through, here are the best highlights of the shifts that occurred in relation to the US election odds evolving throughout nine months.

Sr. No. Event Trump (%) Biden (%)
1 March 4 (post-Super Tuesday):  53.9 40
2 March 18 (after first ‘shelter in place’ order) 44.5 44.5
3 April 13 (five days after Bernie Sanders drops out):  50.5 42
4 June 2 (10 days after George Floyd’s death) 43 47.3
5 June 30 (end of fiscal Q2) 33 59.2
6 July 15 (Kanye West ends presidential bid) 34.7 58.2
7 Aug. 17 (Kamala Harris joins Biden’s ticket) 39.3 54.1
8 Aug. 28 (post-Republican National Convention) 45.4 49.6
9 Sept. 29 (post-first debate) 39.4 61.73
10 Oct. 22 (post-second debate) 33.5 65.2

The odds on betting sites like Bet365 kept jumping back and forth between the two prominent candidates until the 2nd of November due to the factor of uncertainty, where Florida’s underwhelming performance in favor of Biden turned the tables for a hot minute by increasing President Trump’s chances of willing in speculation by 40%. 

On November 3rd, the election day, Joe Biden entered the presidential race with odds of 1.30 while President Trump had odds of 1.90.  The election day odds from the 2nd of November through the 5th are illustrated as below:

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At the end of it all, Joe Biden announced victory, thereby making positive shockwaves in the stock market and betting market. Biden turned out to be the favorite on all betting and prediction markets, so much so that one Betfair punter felt confident enough to place a wager of £1 million ($1.3 million)  on the now 46th President Elect at 8-to-15 odds (65%). 

This was a day of big winnings for many in the prediction market, but also a time of heavy losses for those who put their money on Trump.

We’d call this the betting event of the year, but who knows what awesome betting events lie ahead in the coming decade?