Elections in Brazil: after the controversy over the forecasts of the polls, they released the first data for the ballotage

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Jair Bolsonaro (Reuters)
Jair Bolsonaro (Reuters)

It is the first poll to be published after the surprising results of the first round and controversy over the data collected by demographic companies, so far from reality. For ipecwhose surveys were commissioned by the powerful communication group GloboLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva would have the 51% of intention to vote, against the 43% by Jair Messiah Bolsonaro. Counting the valid votes, Lula would have the 55% against him 45% of the president.

This poll is very similar to the one on Saturday night, a few hours before the polls openwhen the most important national media announced the last two electoral polls in an atmosphere of suspense and all pomp.

Nobody could imagine that for the pollsters to go from glory to hell would be so fast. Datasheetone of the most famous polling institutes, owned by the same group as the Brazilian newspaper Newspapergave Lula as leader on Saturday with the 50% of the votes ahead of Bolsonaro, who was in the 36%a difference of 14 points in line with their polls from previous weeks.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (REUTERS / Carla Carniel)
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (REUTERS / Carla Carniel)

The ipec He had even given the former president the winner with 51% compared to 37% for Bolsonaro. But even 24 hours later, those figures would not be contradicted by reality: Lula found himself in a tight head-to-head that ended with 48.43% for him and 43.2% for the president, a difference of only 5 percentage points. It’s about a political earthquake not anticipated by analysts, who instead had focused to the end on the risk of a sharp escalation of violence triggered by a possible accusation of fraud electoral by Bolsonaro.

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Thus, instead of the assault on the institutional buildings of Brasilia in the style of January 6 in the United States, the Minister of Justice, Anderson Torres, announced in the last few hours that the Federal Police will open an investigation into the research institutes. “Nothing better than a police investigation to clarify whether there was a crime or collusion on the part of some of these institutions”, declared the minister in a press conference.

Brazilians wait to vote in Curitiba (REUTERS/Rodolfo Buhrer)
Brazilians wait to vote in Curitiba (REUTERS/Rodolfo Buhrer)

22 MPs have also signed a petition to the Senate to open a parliamentary commission of inquiry on the matter. At least 27 signatures are required for the application to be accepted. The bill was introduced by Senator Marcos do Valfrom the center-right party We can. In previous days, the Minister of Communication, Fábio Faria, described as “rude” the errors of the pollsters and asked the voters of Bolsonaro to They will boycott the questions by not answering them.

Publication of polls as a weapon of voter manipulation should be prohibited. We will not allow institutes to cause harm. I ask everyone not to answer their questions,” she said on social media. Bolsonaro himself had affirmed on Sunday when leaving the electoral college where he had voted that what counts “is the Datapovo”, that is, the will of the people, playing with the name of the Datafolha demoscopic institute.

Lula's militants after the dissemination of the results (REUTERS/Diego Vara)
Lula’s militants after the dissemination of the results (REUTERS/Diego Vara)

When the results were known, his first statement was “we have won the lie”, to then directly attack the voting institutes. “I think that this time they have discredited themselves,” he told the journalists present, “all of this has served to take votes to the opposite side.” In Brazil, the law allows polls to be published until the day before the vote. In other countries, such as Italy or Argentina, polls are prohibited weeks or days before the elections to avoid any possibility of interference, and the polling institutes do not belong to groups linked to the media, as is the case in Brazil with Datasheet.

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The directors of the institutes now involved in the controversy have tried to explain this surprising discrepancy between your data and the final result, sometimes even giving the impression of making excuses. “In our opinion, the voters made a strategic decision to anticipate a possible second round and prevent the election from ending with the first,” Márcia Cavallari, director of Ipec, told Globo TV.

A supporter of Jair Bolsonaro after the elections (REUTERS / Adriano Machado)
A supporter of Jair Bolsonaro after the elections (REUTERS / Adriano Machado)

The director of DatasheetLuciana Chong also proposed a similar explanation. “In the survey on Saturday we saw that the 13% of voters said they could still change their minds about voting. Among Ciro’s voters this rate was 41% and among those of Simone Tebet of the 37%. In the end, the useful vote did not come in favor of Lula but in favor of Bolsonaro”, said Chong.

It was precisely about helpful vote that Lula had strongly pressed in his electoral campaign for the first round, provoking the anger of the candidate Cyrus Gomes, of the Labor Democratic Party, which proposed the possibility of a third way to the Lula/Bolsonaro polarization. “I feel like a victim of extermination”, Gomes had said, “there is no respect, there is no shame, they are really Nazis”, referring to the PT. “Voters are disoriented by hate”, he had added, but they must vote “against communism and against fascism”. On Tuesday, Gomes quietly retired and He accepted without controversy the decision of his party to support Lula for the second round.

The cover of a newspaper shows the results of Sunday (REUTERS / Pilar Olivares)
The cover of a newspaper shows the results of Sunday (REUTERS / Pilar Olivares)

Therefore, the unknown role of the ballot box in this Monday vuelta of the elections, which leads to the decisive vote on October 30. Beyond the explanations given by the managers of the demographic companies, it is very likely that the quality of the surveys will be affected by the use of obsolete databases. The last census in Brazil dates back to 2010, the one planned for 2020 was canceled due to the Covid epidemic. Lastly, both the polls and Lula’s campaign strategists have taken little account of the fact that the number of pentecostal evangelicals -over which one of the main battles is now being played to displace the decisive votes from Bolsonaro to Lula- has most likely increased compared to those declared in the last census, when they were 42.275.440.

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Keep reading:

A historic opponent of Lula’s party declared his support for the ballotage
Fernando Henrique Cardoso announced his support for Lula da Silva for the runoff against Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil
Simone Tebet, who came third in the elections in Brazil, announced her support for Lula Da Silva for the second round

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